Standings Or Form: What’s More Important When Betting On Soccer?
Form is temporary, class is permanent.
This sentence may have some truth to it, but it has also cost many football fans a lot of money.
It may be true that a one week error doesn’t mean anything for the next few weeks, but it doesn’t give the big picture. After all, loss of shape can also be quite permanent. If not, Nottingham Forest would still be one of England’s best teams; Blackburn Rovers would have continued to dominate the world after winning the EPL in 1994, and Aberdeen would be as unstoppable as Real Madrid.
If a team that dominates at the top of the league suddenly fails, that could suggest that they just had a day off and that everything will be fine the following week. But it could also indicate that the rot has started and that he will soon lose his lead.
This is why the team form means more than the current ranking.
Not convinced? Let’s look at some examples.
One of the best-known examples in English Premier League history came in the 1995/96 season, when Newcastle United appeared to have signed and sealed the title before Christmas. Kevin Keegan’s side at Newcastle were 10 points clear at the top of the table and looked unbeatable having taken them to 12 points in January.
In March, there were signs of a mess within the squad. If you were betting based on league position, you would have put your home in Newcastle to continue. If you had paid attention to the form, you would have thought twice.
Between 21st February 8e April, Newcastle took just 7 points out of a possible 24 and ultimately lost the title to Manchester United. It was one of the biggest failures in EPL history, and it proved that ranking didn’t matter as much as team form.
For further proof, we can turn to Italy. Crotone looked like a sure thing for relegation in 2016/17. The team that recently found their name in Italian Serie B standings after relegation in 2017/18, seemed destined for an earlier decline. But it took an impressive 20 out of 27 possible points to end the season in 17e.
As the current Italian Serie A standings prove, it’s a pretty ruthless league, and yet the doomed Crotone ripped it apart like champions, causing much consternation for all who supported the squad based on the ranking of the league.
When is the form just temporary?
Newcastle United’s performance in 1995/96 is a prime example of why table position means nothing and how quickly things can go wrong. But it’s also a bit of an outlier.
If you go to the city of Newcastle and have a few drinks with the locals, they will inevitably start talking about football. After lamenting the form of the current squad, they will come to remember the NUFC of yore, and before long, the 95/96 season will be mentioned.
Everyone will have their theories as to why the team collapsed. Maybe there was a problem in the locker room. Maybe their confidence took a hit after the first loss. Maybe other teams have just started to understand how Newcastle are playing.
Fortunately, these catastrophic drops in form are generally easier to read, and if you pay attention to team form and league standings, and research injury news, you can predict them for yourself.
Confidence often plays a big role. If a team exceeds expectations, players will be confident, happy and ready to take on the world. But as soon as things start to go against them, doubts will seep in and they will adopt a defeatist stance.
We saw this happen with Liverpool in 2013/14. Liverpool were 5 points ahead with only 3 games to go. It looked like the league would be painted red and the LFC would get a long-awaited title.
Coming into a game against title contenders Chelsea, Liverpool only needed one point. A draw to secure the title. But then the famous “slip” came from Steven Gerrard, Chelsea scored and the points went to Londoners.
This shift filled the city of Liverpool with doubt. The title was theirs, but as they had experienced this difficult result, they had already given up hope, although the team was still at the top of the table with a few games to go.
A week later, Liverpool took a 3-0 lead against Crystal Palace and then blew it up. As soon as Crystal Palace pulled out just one goal, heads fell, doubts returned and the score of 3-3 was practically inevitable.
After all, football is not played on paper. It is not a game of algorithms played by machines. It’s an 11v11 game, and in many cases those 11s are young men desperate to get their hands on a trophy. They can be inexperienced, anxious, and naive, and when you’re in that frame of mind it’s easy for the media or the opposition to bother you and get in your head. This is ultimately why the form of a team matters more than the ranking, because you are betting on a team that is good at the moment, a team that has regained its form and who plays without fear, without anxiety and with a carried confidence. to 11.
How to read the football form?
Most modern forms lists use a check mark to denote a win, an “x” to denote a loss, and a line for a draw. They also tend to be colorful, with green for a win, red for a loss, and gray for a draw. AT BetzCenter.com, we have an algorithm that understands the team results and calculates the team shape accordingly. You can always get a general impression of a team’s form before every game, in seconds. Make sure to check it out!
Does league form still matter?
League form is essential for league games, but may not mean much to you when this team is playing away from home. In such cases, you will have to look at the non-domestic form and try to judge the comparison of the two.
Is form the only thing that matters?
Form is certainly a major factor, but you also have to consider whether the team really needs the win. If a top team has already won the league and is playing against a lower team fighting for relegation, the former may field a weakened team while the latter does it all.
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