2021 Seattle Mariners Predictions, Including Home Run Leader, Wins, Trades


With the 2021 MLB With just a few days to go, let’s have some fun with the Seattle Mariners prediction.

Home Runs: Ty France, 33

Kyle lewis has the best raw power on the list, but unless there’s a better effort to get to his pulling side and thanks to his penchant for swing and miss, he’s not likely to beat France in the long game. ball this season.

Batting average (qualified only): Mitch haniger, .279

I think there are a small handful of players who could challenge Haniger, and there’s a chance Haniger won’t end up qualifying in a Mariners uniform, but he’s the safest bet among regulars screened for. reach .270 or better.

The only problem is if he is traded he will not qualify, in which case I would choose France.

OBP (qualified only): Haniger, .358

SLG (qualified only): France, .518

Haniger is also a top contender here as well.

Triplets: Jarred Kelenic, 7

He’s unlikely to start the season in the major leagues, but he’s a good bet to get over 400 AP and his power and speed combo gives him a chance to triple pretty well.

Taylor trammell is also a good bet to fill in the gaps and eliminate some three baggers, as is the case Dylan moore.

JP Crawford had four triples in under 400 home plate appearances in 2019, so keep an eye out for him too.

Walks: Kyle lewis, 64

I don’t expect its 14% walking rate to continue through 2021, but it has always attracted 9-12% underage walking. Ten percent of the 600 (PA) are 60, and even in a mediocre range at best, the top three regulars are likely to get at least as many trips to the plate.

For the context, Daniel Vogelbach led the Mariners in the APs in 2019 with 558, and he’s played in just 144 games, just 129 starts. If Lewis starts 145 games, he easily makes 600 home plate appearances.

Strikes: Lewis, 144 years old

That number might get out of hand as he was breathing almost 30% of the time a year ago, but I think if he fights that hard he will have time to work on things which will limit the volume. .

For the context, his rate of 29.3% K out of 242 AP in 2020 resulted in 71 strikeouts.

Stolen bases: Dylan moore, 22

We’re going to find out more about Moore in 2021 than the whole of 2020, but there are signs that the capacity on the base is legitimate (.358 OBP, 8.8% markets in 2020, 8.9% and + .94 OBP-AVG in 2019). He’s not a great athlete, but he has 55 speeds and reads pitchers as well as anyone else on the list.

Moore slipped 23 sacks in his first 441 APs in the majors, including 104 first base touchdowns by singles, error, RAP or walk.

fWAR: Lewis, 3.9

He’s not a great CF glove, but he’s about average, and even if he hits .230-.240 he should record at least league average base scores and score over 20 circuits. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll play 145-150 games and he’s a 3.5-win or better player, as a ground.

Pitched sleeves: Marco gonzales, 164

I have 27 or 28 starts, six rounds per start – he averaged 6.3 a year ago – and that puts me over 160 for the year.

Strikes: Yusei Kikuchi, 158

Paxton will have the best K%, but the odds of him staying with the squad beyond July or staying healthy for 25-28 starts prevents me from becoming the leader here.

Kikuchi whipped up 24.2% of the hitters he faced a year ago with a swinging 12.1% hitting rate, so he’s a solid bet to hit around 150.

Walks: Chris flexen, 68

Flexen can throw some strikes, but his fastball value can struggle in the States and as a result I’m afraid he nibbles a bit. Certainly more than Paxton, Gonzales, Kikuchi, Justus sheffield, and the Justin dunn we have seen this spring.

But he’s also more likely to get 140-150 innings than Dunn, who I bet has the worst walk rate among the six starters.

Checked in: Rafael Montero, 31

Save is a dumb statistic – it’s super dumb and shouldn’t exist, and fantasy baseball is dumb too, so take it – but Montero is likely to have the vast majority of opportunities. If he stays with the club all year, I think over 30 is reasonable.

FWAR pitcher: Gonzales, 4.1

Gonzales was No.13 among MLB starting pitchers a year ago with a 2.0 fWAR in just 10 starts, which is prorated to 5.4 wins over substitution, even considering that it probably only has 27 or 28 departures. While rhythm isn’t the best way to project, it does offer some idea of ​​Gonzales’ reliability.

The 29-year-old posted 3.7 fWAR in 2019 (34 starts) and 3.5 in 2018 (29 starts), suggesting that 4.1 is anything but exaggerated.

First hope called up to 26 players after the opening day: Joey gerber, RHR

This flies in the face of my current projection for today’s opening roster, since I have Gerber on it, but I have 33-33-33 in this prediction (Gerber-Swanson-Steckenrider), and if it doesn’t He’s not Gerber, I think he might be making his way before the Triple-A schedule starts.

First player traded from the list of 40 players between opening day and July 31: Jake fraley, FROM

Just an idea that when Kelenic is summoned they will need 40 man space in addition to 26 man space and whether or not Fraley is on the 26 men he could be moved through a small business to create some space. ‘space.

How many games does Kelenic play in Tripe-A Tacoma ?: 0

Would it surprise me if he plays Tacoma? No, but I think there’s a good chance he’ll stay at ATS for a few weeks and join the 26-year-old later in April even before the minor league season starts, so …

Logan gilbert MLB games started: 14

More or less than 1.5 All-Star selections: UNDER

I could see a second Mariners player sneak in if a youngster like Lewis wins a fan vote after a Haniger or France get the first nod, but other than that I don’t think there is any good chance Seattle gets more than one.

Next year and beyond, however …

More or less than 162 circuits: MORE THAN

They hit 60 a year ago in the 60-game season and will have Haniger back, France for the entire season, and will likely add more power with their youth than they did a year ago in 2B (Moore played mostly OF).

More or less than 131 stolen bases: UNDER

I think Seattle will keep racing, but the pace they were at a year ago – almost one per game – won’t continue for a full season.

More or less than 4.5 transactions made with members of the list of 40 people between the opening day and July 31: UNDER

I think the top three 40-man contenders from the regular season are Haniger, Paxton and Montero, with mention by national media that Seager is a bit obtuse with no unpredictable contract restructuring factors which are very, very rare in baseball.

More or less than 72.5 team wins: MORE THAN

While this is indeed one more year where development is more important than scratching all possible wins, the roster has more overall talent, fewer holes, more potential and more depth this year than the club that has. won a clip of 73 wins per year. since.

I think on the low side we’re looking at 70 or more wins. On the high side, this club could threaten .500, although the fact that they are not at all likely to fight could deprive them of key veterans in July, which would hurt their chances of maximizing their ability to win.

I would bet on 75 wins.

Last updated on March 26, 2021 by Jason A. Churchill

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Jason A. Churchill

Churchill founded Prospect Insider in 2006 and has spent several years covering preparatory, college and pro sports for various newspapers including The News Tribune and Seattle PI. Jason spent four and a half years at ESPN and two years at CBS Radio. He is now the editor of Data Skrive, a technology company that manipulates data to deliver automated content to customers including AP, BetMGM, USA Today, and ESPN. Find Jason’s baseball podcast, Baseball Things, here.

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